Townhomes lead the way; Despite strong sales, prices are flat and decline in many areas
OVERVIEW
The supply of active listings in the Baltimore Metro Area housing
market continues to shrink, and is at the lowest January-level in eight
years. However, the pattern appears to be changing slowly with new
listings, which had the highest year-over-year gain since Spring 2011.
New listings are also up across all property segments, which has not
occurred in over 2 years. Even with the shifting pattern in new
listings, the overall inventory still remains low. There are a wide
range of factors that could be keeping sellers from listing their
properties. Many could not have enough equity at current prices to
“trade up” into a larger unit. Others may have trouble finding a unit
to begin with because the inventory is so low. Economic uncertainty
also remains a key issue on the table for many. Signs of demand in the
market remain strong. Sales growth has been consistent in the region,
and new contract activity has exceeded its 10-year average. Despite the
sales growth and low inventory, prices are flat metro-wide, and have
declined in several jurisdictions. This could be an early indication of
softening demand, but it could also signal a change in the types of
units purchased. Evidence of this can be seen in the townhome market,
which led in year-over-year sales growth for the first time in 3 years,
and year-over-year new contract growth for the first time in 1 ½ years.
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CLOSED SALES
Fourth straight month of double-digit sales growth, townhomes lead growth for the first time in 3 years.
There were 1,538 sales in January in the Baltimore Metro region, a 15.3
percent gain from this time last year. Sales fell sharply from last
month, down 20.9 percent, but this is in line with seasonal patterns.
While sales numbers have improved from last year, the region is still
roughly 200 sales shy of the 10-year January average. Townhomes had the
largest year-over-year gain of all property segments, rising 23.6
percent from January 2012. This is the first time townhomes have led in
year-over-year sales growth since February 2010. After a dramatic 41.5
percent year-over-year sales gain last month, the condo market posted
only a 2.0 percent gain in sales from January 2012. Sales of
single-family detached homes rose 12.6 percent from this time last
year. Single-family homes now account for 47.8 percent of all sales in
the Baltimore Metro market, which is the highest proportion in nearly 2
years.
PRICES
Median sales price flat and declining in many jurisdictions, prices for condos and townhome fall.
At $209,250, the median sales price in the Baltimore region is
essentially unchanged from this time last year, rising only $880. This
is the slowest year-over-year price growth the region has seen since
January 2012. Single-family detached homes led in growth, up 5.9
percent from this time last year. Condos and townhomes both had median
sales price declines of 6.2 percent. Median sales prices fell in many
jurisdictions around the region. Baltimore City had the largest
decline, falling 12.4 percent from January 2012. Carroll County was the
only area to see double-digit price gains, up 17.6 percent from this
time last year. The decline in sales prices could be reflective of the
types of properties sold in the region. As noted earlier, townhomes had
the largest year-over-year gain in sales and the price points on these
units tend to be lower. It could also be an early sign of softening
demand in the region.
NEW CONTRACTS
New contract activity continues to improve and exceeds 10-year average; townhomes lead in growth.
There were 2,353 new contracts signed in January in the metro region,
up 12.2 percent from this time last year, and the highest January total
in 6 years. New contract activity rose 26.8 percent from last month,
but this is in line with seasonality. Townhomes led all property
segments in year-over-year growth, up 25.6 percent from January 2012.
This is the first time townhomes have led in new contract growth in 18
months. New contracts on condos are up 9.0 percent from last year, and
new contracts on single-family detached homes rose 4.2 percent. New
contract levels for all property types are near their 10-year averages
for the month, with townhomes the only segment exceeding the 10-year
average by 26 contracts.
INVENTORY
Active listings are at their lowest January-level in 8 years; however the pattern continues to change. There
were 9,386 active listings at the end of January in the Baltimore Metro
Area, 23.0 percent below this time last year. This is the lowest
January inventory for the region since 2005. Despite the shrinking
inventory, new listings continue to show signs of growth. There were
3,009 new listings in January, 6.2 percent higher than this time last
year, and the largest gain since Spring 2011. The pattern is taking
hold across all property segments. New listings for condos are up 14.2
percent from January 2012. Townhomes and single-family detached
listings rose 7.3 and 4.1 percent respectively. This is the first time
all property segments have had year-over-year growth in new listings in 2
years. The low inventory of homes for sale is having an impact on the
median days-on-market, which was 51 days in January, down 34 days from
this time last year. The sale-to-list-price ratio also continues to
rise as a result of the inventory conditions, and is now 91.5 percent,
up from 87.9 percent a year ago.
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